By Matthew Gaude & Shawn McGuire
President Trump campaigned on the promise of sweeping tax reform, and on December 20, 2017, Congress passed the final version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and made his promise a reality. This bill entails a number of changes to the U.S. tax code that will impact both corporations and individuals. With tax season in full swing right now, people are wondering how these changes will affect their personal situation once the bill goes into effect. Here’s what we can expect.
How Will It Affect Your Household?
Although taxes are anything but simple, the nutshell explanation of the new tax bill is that it lowers tax rates for individuals and corporations, increases the child tax credit, doubles the standard deduction, and caps or eliminates several deductions.
It’s estimated that around 80% of people will see a tax cut in the first year of the legislation, and the Tax Policy Center estimates that the average person will see a tax cut of $1,610 in 20181. However, the amount will vary based on income bracket. In general, the tax bill favors wealthier Americans, offering more tax breaks the more you earn, with fewer benefits to lower and middle class Americans. The TPC estimates that 65.8% of the total federal tax benefit will go to the top 20% of earners.
As a result of an increased after-tax income, some economists believe this may boost consumer confidence. However, the after-tax income increase may not be enough to see an economic change.
We will be conducting a 2018 Tax Strategies webinar that will discuss in much greater detail the changes that have occurred in the Tax Cut & Jobs Act that may affect your tax filling in future years. We will be sending out a Save the Date email invitation shortly so be on the lookout and plan on setting aside approximately 45 minutes to 1 hour for the presentation.
How Will It Impact Big Businesses?
Big businesses will significantly benefit from the tax bill, namely with the federal corporate tax rate dropping from 35% to 21%. Companies will likely see a serious boost in their profits, with JPMorgan estimating that this bill could boost the earnings per share of S&P 500 companies by $10 per share in 2018.
Additionally, some experts estimate that giant companies like Google will save several billion dollars in 2018 due to the new tax code. With these tax cuts, businesses could use these savings to increase wages, pay down debt, invest, or pay for capital expenditures. In fact, Apple has already pledged to bring billions of overseas dollars back to the U.S., pay taxes on it and invest it back into the economy. They are planning to create 20,000 new jobs and issue stock grants of $2,500 to most of their employees, all thanks to the tax changes.
What Does It Mean For The Market?
The announcement of this tax bill provided a short-term boost to the economy, but the long-term market effects are yet to be seen. The Joint Committee on Taxation believes the bill will boost growth the total size of the US GDP by 0.8 percentage points over the first decade, while Goldman Sachs is estimating GDP growth will increase 0.3 percentage points above their baseline over the next two years.
Since large companies benefit from reduced taxes, their value will be pushed higher on Wall Street. The market was up in early trading after news of the bill. Many experts believe that gains are not already priced into the market and that it could continue to go up significantly through 2018.
Small and mid-cap stocks, consumer staples, telecoms, financials, and industrials pay the highest tax rate, so with the new tax cuts, values of these companies could go up in the short term. Many experts believe that stocks will rise as a result of the news, with the markets already seeing much activity. Experts at JPMorgan believe stocks could even rise 5% after the bill officially passes. However, they also anticipate volatility in the new year, which we experienced in the early February correction.
Where Does This Leave You?
This tax bill is brand new, so there is still much to learn and understand before we will know how it will impact households and businesses in the near and far future. No one is sure exactly how the economy will behave in the coming months or years, but many experts expect a positive impact.
If you are one of our clients, your portfolio has been built with tax reform in mind and we are continually monitoring the markets so we can make appropriate changes if needed. If you have any questions, call or email our office.
If your friends or family are concerned with so many potential swings in the markets, now is a good time for them to review their financial plan to see how their strategies may be impacted by this tax bill and whether or not it’s appropriate to make adjustments. We’re never too busy to help someone you care about, so feel free to put them in touch with our office. Book a meeting with us today by calling my office at 770-552-5968 or scheduling an appointment online.
Matthew Gaude is an *investment advisor representative and the co-founder of Live Oak Wealth Management, a financial services firm in Roswell, Georgia. He serves the planning and investment needs of corporate employees, those approaching or in retirement, and 401(k) plan sponsors. Working first as a commodity broker and then as a Business Development Manager for a national broker-dealer in previous jobs, he has the insights and experience to help clients understand the complexities of the market and implement strategies to minimize risk. To learn more about Matthew, connect with him on LinkedIn or visit www.liveoakwm.com.
Shawn McGuire is a financial advisor and the co-founder of Live Oak Wealth Management, a financial services firm in Roswell, Georgia. He serves the planning and investment needs of corporate employees, those approaching or in retirement, and 401(k) plan sponsors. He has worked in financial services since 2002 in positions ranging from financial advisor to stock broker and portfolio manager. As a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, he is trained to help clients with virtually all their financial needs. To learn more about Shawn, connect with him on LinkedIn or visit www.liveoakwm.com.
Securities offered through American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through *American Portfolio Advisors, Inc., a SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Live Oak Wealth Management, LLC is independently owned and not affiliated with APFS or APA.
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